Yet another Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire area today. Warm temperatures, gusty winds, and low relative humidity will serve as a dangerous combination for rapid brush fire spread. This has been a remarkable fall for fires across CT, with local fire officials telling us this is one of the worst brush fire seasons in memory. The main issue is today’s weather has been a microcosm of the last 10 weeks. After deadly flash flooding in August, the pendulum has swung completely the opposite direction. At our climate station in Danbury, for example, we have received less than an inch of rain since September 7th. For perspective, we average nearly 10 inches of rain during that time.

So… when will water actually fall from the sky? Well, we have our first shot at a *decent* rainfall Sunday night in Monday morning as a front approaches from the west. Earlier in the week, it looked like this front had a chance to drag up a decent amount of moisture from Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico, but now it seems certain the connection has mostly been missed. Still though, a moist SW flow and frontal energy should yield the area around 0.25 inches of rainfall or perhaps even a touch more in spots. You can see the flow illustrated below – valid for Sunday night on the European model. While this is not a ‘drought buster’ by any means, at this point anything helps.

Next week all attention will turn to a stronger storm system in the Thursday and Friday timeframe. Right now both the GFS and Euro are showing a system track across the country before attempting to develop a lingering coastal low. This would be great news in terms of giving the area a longer term, soaking rainfall that would put a bigger dent in the drought.

The only issue is this system remains 6+ days away, so the confidence in exact impacts is fairly low. As would be expected at this range, there are still significant differences between the major global models, with the GFS and Euro, as an example, showing different rainfall outputs across the region.

While the jury is still out on the final verdict for this storm, the good news is at least we have something to track.