CONNECTICUT WEATHER’S LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSION
July 26, 2024 8:00 AM
Satellite and ground observations show clear skies across the region Friday morning along with a cooler and drier airmass. There will be a plume of elevated wildfire smoke that comes close to the region today, so cannot rule out some haze, but thankfully near-surface smoke levels are forecast to stay negligible. High pressure and sunshine will be the theme for the next few days with temperatures running in the 80s across the area.
There were some signals on the modeling last night for a cutoff coastal low on to impact the area Sunday into Monday with cloudy, showery, and breezy conditions, but confidence with this feature is low. Models have backed off on this with the latest runs, keeping the low far enough offshore for mostly sunny skies across Southern New England. It is possible the European model was overdoing this feature as it has exhibited a bias of showing coastal storms as too strong and too close in the past. Nonetheless, the potential for some unsettled weather late Sunday or Monday should be monitored, especially in Eastern zones.
There is higher confidence in showers and storms Tuesday through Wednesday as a more conventional frontal feature approaches from the west. To summarize, decided to introduce an isolated chance for showers and storms Monday followed by scattered probabilities Tuesday and Wednesday.